What if Malthus was right? The world needs to double food production in next 50 years or else...

Super rich and Super poor: Stunning and disgusting contrast in Sao Paolo: The rich and their private balconies complete with swimming pools and excellent views on the shantytown next door!





In his book "Essay on the Principle of Population" (1798), the English economist and demographer Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) claimed that the human population was increasing every twenty-five years in a geometrical ratio (that is 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256…), while the food supply was increasing only in an arithmetical ratio (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8...).



While the world population doubles every now and then, food resources show a much more modest rise, far less than what is needed to feed the extra masses. Malthus claimed that this huge disparity will always exist no matter what, and that is the root of the major problems humanity will always face. The world's population today stands at more than 6 bl, will hit 7bl in 2012 and 9bl in 2040 but very unequally distributed over the continents. (Note: The first billion milestone was reached in 1827. Since then the population explosion to 7 bl is absurd and non sustainable. Malthus wrote his book even before the world had reached the 1 bln mark).



Malthus argued that the supply of food production and our capacity to increase it is a much weaker force than the huge and constant population growth. Therefore wars, poverty, famine, disease, epidemics and other calamities decimating human lives are just understandable and natural consequences of this constant food shortage. These human tragedies are the only way to keep the population in check and hence balance our numbers with the actual food supply.





Very thirsty: Humans are not the only ones suffering from the water shortages. Endless wars were fought over water supplies. For example, the Near East countries from Turkey to Israel and surrounding Arab nations have all strained inter-relations over water disputes. Wars are anticipated for the control of fresh water supplies.





Malthus published his views from 1789 until 1826 with several editions and additions of his famous book. He explained clearly his views about subsistence level principles and wage pressures on the economic realities. he concluded that it was becoming essential to engage in a serious struggle for survival for each individual, society and by extension nation.







His underlying conclusion was that however we try, the population growth will keep exerting even more pressure on the overall system resulting in the human catastrophes. In other words, prosperity will always be distributed in a very unequal way, poverty will never be eradicated, widespread hunger and constant wars over resources (water, land, oil, mines etc) will ensure the right natural "balance".



Malthus’ theories and axioms greatly influenced people like Darwin, Adam Smith and major political leaders around the world both from the left and the right. Darwin's views in "The Origin of Species" were most influenced by Thomas Robert Malthus and his ideas.



Nationalist extremists and colonialists used his theories as proof of their "vision" for survival and need for aggressive and illegal territorial expansions. The rather distorted concept of "vital living space" or Lebensraum" was professed by Adolf Hitler as an official excuse for the need more "German" land. He saw his aggressions in the light of survival for his nation by annihilating others.



Leftist philosophers and political thinkers like Marx and Engels did not approve of Malthus and accused him of justifying the abuse of the working class by the capitalist forces. They counter argued that the working classes remain poor because of the abuses and not natural forces.





Thomas Malthus: Famine, disease, massacres, poverty and wars etc. are only normal and will always be with us to limit population and even out with the food supply. Love him or hate him, Malthus was an exceptional thinker and he may well have the last "laugh". . A major catastrophe in many regions may be on the horizon if food production is not almost doubled in a few decades.



Basically Malthus was accused of being a negative thinker devoid of any moral values and a proponent of theories of gloom and doom. He was seen as someone excusing such things as child labor for survival, capitalist abuses, megalomaniac leaders and proponents of an unjust world. Malthus was stating what he perceived as a universal truth that will always hold true. Malthus' theory specifically states that increases in productivity is never enough to keep pace with the population growth, so the only solution is positive voluntary population check, such as birth control, celibacy, abortion etc. A good illustration is China’s strict quotas for children per family: a very Malthusian policy to avoid large scale catastrophe.



Despite all the opposition, Malthus remains an unequaled force in the history of human thought and his axioms are very difficult to ignore or discard. Moreover time may definitely be on his side as the humans exert more and more pressure on the planet's increasingly scarce resources and our failure to increase food production proportionally to the population increase.



Safe drinking water: About a fifth of humanity lacks access, according to United Nations data, while 44 percent of the world's population live in areas affected by high water stress, and this figure is expected to increase to 47% by 2030.



Economic theories can be dismissed as just theories, but Malthus nailed in the sad truth: Humans multiply too fast for our planet. We are too successful for our own good. Therefore we better accept the idea that all the horrible things like poverty, vice, corruption, famine and bloodshed are a direct result of our own genetic unchecked growth potential and biological aggressiveness.



If food and resources fall in short supply and therefore only war, famine, disease and other natural consequences keep the human number in check, then are men good in nature like some philosophers such as Jean Jacques Rousseau and many others believe? Do constant killings and wars all justifiable in the context of survival?



According to some British studied published lately in Kent, England, the next 50 years will be extremely challenging for humans in general in terms of food production with enough quantities at a reasonable pricing. Basically, the world needs to almost double its food output and the only way to really boost that is by major technological breakthroughs. One such technology is the GM (genetically modified foods).





Very Hungry: line ups will definitely grow longer: Food shortages are here to stay and they will get worse according to the demographic projections. Famines are inevitable to check the growth in numbers.



The Genetically Modified foods are crops that have traits altered by the addition of DNA from a different organism. They are vegetables, fruits and field crops and the different ways in which they can be altered to protect them from disease, harsh weather, long distance travel etc.



Enhancing desired traits in food crops as well as domesticated animals is as old as the earliest human settlements. Since ancient times, farmers used the process of artificial selection to grow plants with desired qualities and breed better and more efficient animals. However these methods are time consuming and it is very difficult to introduce new traits into a specific population. In contrast, using genetic engineering, scientists can take the gene that controls the trait from one organism and insert it into another organism that does not have the gene to make it better. GM and other modern technologies may face opposition, but reality will soon sink in and necessity will give in to ideological opposition.







"Stop Monsanto" sign in a field and the Genetically Modified Food technology it represents. Is the American giant firm just an easy target or do they really represent a real threat to humanity? Malthusian theory may well give Monsanto reason. The world will soon experience an increasing food costs, along with energy and environmental dire realities. Some activists see the new technologies as evil but they have no positive proposals.





The total arable land in the world does not necessarily increase. Therefore the crop yields per area should increase considerably through better seeds, smarter fertilizers, better management and cutting losses to disease and parasites. Managing limited water resources and checking the emission of greenhouse gases resulting from farming activities of all sorts are other major challenges. The non renewable nature of fossil fuels and finding alternative energy sources are the major tests ahead.

Can the future be bright and can the World avoid major Catastrophes as predicted by Malthus? Unfortunately he may well have the last laugh, as our march toward the 10 billion "milestone" is only a few of decades away.



© Krikor Tersakian, Montreal, Canada